Hype cycle

Hype cycle是Gartner group發展的分析工具,主要是用來分析新的資訊科技在市場上的成熟度,提供高層在採用資訊科技時做策略分析之用,Hype cycle說明資訊科技可被歸類為分成五種類型:

  1. Technology trigger. A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event that generates significant press and industry interest.

  2. Peak of inflated expectations. a phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections during which a flurry of publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes but more failures as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money at this stage are conference organizers and magazine publishers.

  3. Trough of disillusionment. The point at which the technology becomes unfashionable and the press abandons the topic, because the technology did not live up to its overinflated expectations.

  4. Slope of enlightenment. Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and tools become available to ease the development process.

  5. Plateau of productivity. The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generation. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or only benefits a niche market.

下圖是Garnter Group的2008年Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies,圖左半邊位於peak的Green IT,Cloud Computing,Social computing platforms,Microblogging等科技都是這2~5年間相當熱門的技術(Peak of inflated expectations)。至於Web2.0則已經進入Trough of disillusionment的階段。

Gartner Group和HBP在2008年10月出版了一本書Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time,內有關於Hype cycle的介紹。



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